Preparing for the PMP exam

Soon after I passed my PMP exam on 27-June-2009, I saw this question at linkedin.com "How does one go about PMP? basic steps please..."

Rather than re-iterate the entire process which is very well defined in the PMI PMP credential handbook, here are some tips that should help.

1- Make a template to record your PjM experience. That will help organize and record uniform data for all projects.

2- The application need project supervisor information, like name, email and phone number. Be sure to get their permission.

3- Training courses can cost USA 5000.00 to less than USD 100.00. If you want to prepare on your own (like I did) you can chose the cheaper one which are usually online or podcasts. I used pmstudy.com.

4- PMI randomly audits submitted applications. So make sure you inform all relevant supervisors when you submit the application.

5- Read the PMBOK at least 2 times to get an understanding of the standard. The first time around, you may be amazed how different it appears from real life. The second time it all makes good sense.

6- Don't depend only on the PMBOK. Use other resources to prepare for the exam. Books, online prep questions, study groups, etc.

7- Books by Rita Mulcahy are most reccommended. I read it once, made notes and stuck with the notes for the final revision. A list of the books I read is given at the bottom.

8- Attempt lots and lots of practice questions. I can't stress this enough. There are several paid practice tests online. The pmstudy.com online course has almost 100 questions per topic, and a free practice test.

9- If you dont want to spend money on mock exams, make sure you practice with as many questions as possible. The internet is full of PMP sample questions.

10- If you are in doubt, ask for clarification. Join a study group. Linkedin has great professionals who are always willing to sharetheir experience and knowledge.

11- Most IMPORTANTly make sure the training, books, sample questions and mock exams are based on PMBOK 4th edition. All PMP exams from 1-July-2009 will be based on the 4th edition.

Some books I used:

PMP in Depth: Project Management Professional Study Guide for PMP and CAPM Exams - by Paul Sanghera (http://www.paulsanghera.com/books/pmp/index.html)

Head First PMP: A Brain-Friendly Guide to Passing the Project Management Professional Exam - by Andrew Stellman, Jennifer Greene (http://oreilly.com/catalog/9780596102340/)

PMP Exam Prep, Fifth Edition: Rita's Course in a Book for Passing the PMP Exam - by Rita Mulcahy (http://store.rmcproject.com/Detail.bok?no=42)

Estimation Techniques

One Time estimation:

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When estimating using a one-time estimate, one estimate per activity is received. The estimate can be made based on expert judgment, by looking at historical information, or even by just guessing.

One-time estimate per activity has the following negative effects on the project:

- Can force people into padding their estimates

- Hides important information about risks and uncertainties from the project manager, which are needed to better plan and control the project

- Creates a baseline that no one believes in, thus losing buy-in to the project management process

- When a one-time estimate is not met, it can make the person who provided the estimate look untruthful and untrustworthy

- Has the estimators working against the project manager

One-time estimates should only be used for projects that do not require a detailed, highly probable schedule. If one-time estimates are used, it is critical that the project manager provide the estimator with as much information as possible, including the WBS, WBS dictionary and the activity list, or the estimate will likely be unreliable.

Analogous Estimation:

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Also called "Top Down" high-level estimating. It can be done for a project (The last five projects similar to this one each took five months, so this one should also.) or an activity (The last two times this activity was completed each took three days. Since we have no other information to go on, we will use three days as the estimate for this activity and review the estimate when more details become available.). However, the exam seems to take an analogous estimate to mean only the overall project estimate given to the project manager from management or the sponsor. Analogous estimating is a form of expert judgment.

Advs of Analogous estimation:

- Quick

- Activities need not be defined

- Less costly to create

- Gives project manager an idea of the level of management's expectations

- Overall prject costs will be capped

Dis-advs:

- Less accurate

- Estimates are prepared with limited information and understanding of project

- Requires considerable experience

- Extremely difficult for projects with uncertainty

- Does not take into account differences between projects

Bottom-Up Estimation:

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Detailed estimating is done for each activity (if available) or work package (if activities are not defined) and the estimates are then rolled up into an overall project estimate.

Advs of Bottom-Up estimation:

- More accurate

- Gains buy-in from team because they create the estimates

- Based on detailed analysis of project

- Provides a basis for monitoring, controlling, performance measurment and management

Dis-advs of Bottom-Up estimation:

- Takes time and expense

- Requires the project be defined and well understood

- Requires time to break down project into smaller pieces

- Tendency for team to pad estimates

Parametric Estimation:

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Used if you do not have detailed information on which to base time estimates. It uses a mathematical model to calculate projected times for an activity based on historical records from previous projects and other information. The result is an activity estimate based on such measures as time per line of code, time per linear meter or time per installation.

There are two ways to create parametric estimates:

- Regression analysis (scatter 100 - diagram) This diagram tracks two variables to see if they are related and creates a mathematical formula to use in future parametric estimating.

- Learning curve The 100th room painted will take less time than the first room because of improved efficiency.

Heuristics :

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A heuristic means a rule of thumb. An example of a heuristic is the 80/120 rule that, in quality, suggests that 80 percent of quality problems are caused by 20 percent of potential sources of problems. The results of parametric estimates can become heuristics.

Three-Point Estimation: Also called PERT estimate

Tool 5 - Pareto chart

A Pareto chart is a form of a Bar chart which the special characteristic that the data is sorted in descending order before being used in the bar chart. As such the Pareto chart provides an immediate visual trend of the data set.

Because the Pareto chart pre-arranges the raw data, it is efficient when identifying most significant problems or causes, especially when there are several. Based on it's inherent property of representing frequency of occurrence, the Pareto chart is an effective tool to analyze frquency distribution for various categories.

To build a Pareto chart, it is important to correctly select the categories to be displayed and also the appropriate scale relative to the data collected. The Check sheet can be used to gather data. Once the Pareto chart is generated, the categories starting from the left are the obvious choices for further analysis.

Tool 4 - Histogram

A histogram is one of the most commonly used tool to display frequency distribution of events. It shows how often each different value occurs within a set of observations. 

Although quite often used interchangably with a Bar chart, there are major differences; a histogram represents density distribution of quantitative variables, whereas the Bar chart repsents frequency distribution of categorical variables. This means in a histogram it is the area of the bar that denotes the value, whereas in a Bar chart it is the height.

A histogram is most efficient when data under analysis is numerical. Generating a histogram involves determining the number of classes (bars in the graph) to be used, the range of data values and the labels for the bar edges.

As a histogram can display tendency of the process/product measurements, it is an effective tool to study whether requisite requirements can be met.

Tool 3 - Control chart

A control chart is a graph that represents the behaviour of a process over time. Also called a Shewhart chart, this statistical process control tool is used to indicate whether a process is functioning in control. The Control chart can provide critical information on operational parameters of a process, and so is sometimes called the process-behaviour chart.

The control chart plots measurements of a specific process quality characteristic (Y-axis) against time (X-axis). Predetermined measurement values are used to set the Upper (UCL) and Lower control limits (LCL) for the process. If all measurements lie within these limits it indicates the process is in control. The Central control limit (CCL) is calculated as the mean of the values, and is invaluable for further statistical analysis.

The "Rule of 7" states that seven consecutive results on one side of the mean could indicate a problem. Thus even when a control chart appears to be in control it could indicate a skew problem. 

The ASQ, highlights additional out-of-control indicators:

1) A single point outside the control limits

2) Two out of three successive points on same side of centerline and more than 2σ from it

3) Four out of five successive points on same side of centerline and more than 1σ from it

4) Eight points in a row on the same side of the centerline (Similar to the Rule of 7)

5) Also, obvious consistent or persistent patterns that could suggest something unusual about the data, process or the data gathering technique

As the name suggests, the process-behaviour chart is most efficient when results need to be predicted for an ongoing process. If the process is determined to be in control the control chart can be used to find and correct problems as they occur.

For process improvement the Shewhart chart can provide inputs to decide which specific problem points need to be addressed, or also if the complete process needs to be overhauled.

NB: A run chart is a "naked" form of control chart without the concept of control limits. The run chart simply displays process measurements over time.

Tool 2 - Check sheet

The Check Sheet is primarily a data collection tool that allows data being collected to be organized while it is being collected. This effectively means the data undergoes a preliminary analysis in realtime. The check sheet is best suited when several data points can be observed to collect data manually.

A clear understanding is required of what data points are to be observed and collected. These criteria are then specified in an organized table, creating the Check Sheet. Occurrence of each desired data point is then marked on the check sheet. The quickest analysis result possible is the count (frequency) of occurrence for each data point.

Consider an example where in an office survey, participants are asked to choose between 4 predefined options for which brand of coffee to use. The 4 predefined brands form the "predetermined data points" that need to be observed. As each participants answer is manually recorded on the check cheet, a realtime analysis of their answers starts to appear.

It is important to understand that a check sheet, is not the same as a check list, which is an inspection tool. The check sheet is most efficient when data being collected needs to be analysed based on frequency of occurrence. This of course indcicates that data collected in a check sheet can very effectively be represented using histograms.

For obvious reasons, a Check Sheet is also referred to as a "Data Collection Sheet" or a "Tally Chart".

Tool 1- Ishikawa Diagram

Named after  Kaoru Ishikawa, and also called the Cause-and-Effect diagram, the Ishikawa diagram is a brainstorming tool that engages in identifying causes for a particular problem. As the name suggests, it is a diagrammatic tool, where the process of braingstorming and thinking results in a diagram representation of the causes of a known effect.

There are two sections of the diagram; the right side has a box specifying the problem under analysis. A line is then drawn from the box extending towards the left. All possible causes suggested in the course of the brainstorming are then drawn as arms extending out from this main line. Causes can also be differentiated under different categories, with each category having it's own sub-branches. This gives the diagram a fishbone appearance, hence the diagram is also called a Fish-Bone diagram.

As a guideline, the ASQ recommends using the 6 Ms, Machine, Method, Materials, Maintenance, Man, Mother Nature (Environment), as basic categories for brainstorming. This of course does not prevent from identifying further categories.

Another technique to trigger brainstorming is "5 Whys" which involves repeatedly asking the question "Why?!" until the result is drilled down to specific, measurable, controlable causes.

The Fishbone diagram can be used when possible causes of a problem need to be identified, using peoples' thinking. Advantages of using Fishbone diagram are that the problem is clearly identified, multiple causes are identified and inherently classified, people are invovled in the generation of ideas and the output is a visual representation of the ideas.

The best situations to use the Ishikawa diagram are when root causes to known problem need to be identified by stimulating thinking and brainsotrming among a group of participants.